If History Rhymes: What the ChatGPT–Netscape Analogy Means for the Overeducated & Underpaid 

When Bespoke Investment Group first laid the price charts of the Nasdaq Composite after the release of Netscape’s web browser (December 1994) on top of its performance since the release of ChatGPT (November 2022), the lines looked eerily similar.

Investors love a pattern; it makes a complex world feel knowable. But does this rhyming chart mean we’re headed for a repeat of the late‑1990s internet boom and bust? And if so, what does that mean for the people who toil away in graduate programs and cubicles, reading financial blogs for hope?

If the pattern keeps tracking, the first half of 2026 could resemble the first half of 1998. That period was both lucrative and volatile. To make sense of the analogy, it helps to combine historical data, market context and a healthy dose of skepticism.

The chart that launched a thousand think‑pieces

The AI boom kicked off when OpenAI released ChatGPT on November 30th, 2022. In the two years since, the tech‑heavy Nasdaq Composite has rallied roughly 79% over 506 trading days. This surge narrowly eclipsed the 73% rise in the Nasdaq during the two years following Netscape’s debut in December 1994.

When you extend the comparison further, the similarities remain striking: another source calculates that in the 703 days after Netscape’s launch the Nasdaq gained 132.49%, whereas the index has risen about 105.6% since ChatGPT’s release. A third overlay shows the market rallying 74.18% through the first 617 days after ChatGPT came out, compared with 93.42% during the same period in the late 1990s.

Analogies capture investor psychology. We want to believe we’ve seen this movie before, because if we know Act III we can profitably adjust our positions. The temptation to draw a straight line from Netscape to ChatGPT is especially potent because both innovations democratized an emerging technology. Netscape opened the Internet to mainstream users, unleashing e‑commerce and information portals, while ChatGPT introduced large language models to the public, spurring the AI revolution and a new wave of productivity tools.

1998: the year the party continued

So what happened three or so years after Netscape in 1998? The answer matters if we’re tempted to extrapolate to 2026.

The Nasdaq surged nearly 40 % in 1998 thanks to the momentum of the early Internet boom. However, the Nasdaq behaved like a roller‑coaster.

For example. on 31 August 1998, in the midst of the Asian financial crisis, Russia’s default and the near‑collapse of Long‑Term Capital Management, the Nasdaq suffered its biggest one‑day point drop up to that time, it fell down by 8.6 %. That swoon dragged the composite down roughly 20 % from its July high.

The Federal Reserve responded by cutting rates in September/October 1998, liquidity flooded the markets, and the Nasdaq rebounded spectacularly, staging a 48% rally into mid‑1999. By the end of 1999 the index had gained 86% for the year and continued soaring to an all‑time high on 10 March 10, 2000.

This history suggests that if the ChatGPT–Netscape pattern holds, the first half of 2026 might mirror the first half of 1998: strong gains punctuated by a sharp correction preceding a furious rally. Indeed, we could be due for volatility in 2026.

What’s different this time?

Analogies are not crystal balls. Past performance is not predictive, and the conditions of 1998 differ markedly from those of 2026.

Today’s AI rally is anchored in profitable mega‑caps: Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet and other incumbents. The Federal Reserve is just as focused on containing inflation today as it is on stimulating growth. ChatGPT ignited broad awareness, but adoption by enterprises and consumers may roll out incrementally. Much depends on whether governments temper the pace of growth with AI regulation.

Lessons for the overeducated and underpaid

For those juggling student loans and underpaying jobs, the temptation to chase the next tech boom is understandable. But a wise strategy requires nuance:

1.     Focus on the long term. Whether the index surges or stumbles in 2026, the AI revolution will likely reshape industries over decades, just as the Internet did.

2.     Stay liquid for volatility. Keep an emergency fund and avoid over‑leveraging your portfolio so you can take advantage of volatility rather than being forced to sell into weakness.

3.     Maintain valuation discipline. Even if the market rises again into early 2026, high valuations leave little margin for error. Avoid overpaying for growth. Consider dollar‑cost averaging into SPY or QQQ rather than betting on speculative names.

So, is 2026 another 1998?

If the chart continues to rhyme, the first half of 2026 could be a period of strong gains before a more speculative blow‑off—not a bad time to put money to work if you do so prudently. But analogies are invitations to think, not rules to trade by.